Archive for February, 2010

In praise of slow economic development: St Louis versus Baltimore

Wednesday, 24 February 2010 11:48 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

It’s blue skies over the Midwest as I travel to work with clients here in St Louis. Driving into the orderly, clean, rapidly-revitalizing downtown district, I cannot help but make a comparison in how different this city’s economic development has been compared with Baltimore.

Both cities had thriving manufacturing sectors early in 20th Century. Both cities hollowed out in the 1970s, expanding in endlessly-sprawling suburbs in all directions. Both cities left the infrastructure of their downtowns to rot. And both began projects of revitalization in the 1990s, hoping to heal the scars of gross economic inequity and re-center their civic life.

Baltimore launched a massive redevelopment centering around national big-box retail and major attractions. It is bankrupt.

St Louis redeveloped slowly, around local retailers, local investors, small projects. Block by block, it has gotten a little better each year, improving real estate, increasing access to services, getting a bit cleaner, a bit prettier. Nothing too drastic.

The value in slow growth seems to be showing itself…slowly.

Social media, authority and intelligence

Monday, 22 February 2010 18:07 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

We finally have video and audio of last week’s Intelligence Collaborative event at which I discussed the impact of social media on what passes for authoritative information, and thus on decision making.

Online trend analysis training: Real forecasting for Professional Analysts

Monday, 22 February 2010 13:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

If you are professional strategic analyst – or want to be one – you must use forecasts. If you want to improve your chances of success, make sure you and your analysts are using Real Forecasting.

Having trained thousands of executives in the art of foresight, we know that now, more than ever, we need a clear view of the events coming in weeks, months and year, or we risk making decisions on faulty assumptions. What passes for business media is scarcely a help in this area. If you listen uncritically to the forecasts offered up in most channels, you have to base your view of the future on:

  • Sunny economic forecasts based on stock speculation instead of shrinking incomes and unemployment
  • Chairmen of the Federal Reserve forecasting the rise housing prices just before the detonation of the entire economy under the weight of fake mortage-backed securities
  • The US Government predicting world oil supply as stable or steadily growing while key oil fields go extinct and China and India put millions of cars on the road
  • Healthcare debates that appear to ignore the impact of the Boomer retirement, shifts in employment contracts

If you are a professional analyst, we want you to be able to:

  • Know good forecasts from bad
  • Identify who can you trust in a world without defined authority figures
  • Make critical decisions based on the best information

Our short course entitled Real Forecasting for Professional Analysts is perfect for busy analysts and managers who want a professional-level refresher course in the evaluation of forecasts. Our course, featuring 60 minutes of content and 30 minutes of Q&A, will show you how to:

* Find the right sources
* Identify what type of forecast is on offer
* Explore the assumptions of the author
* Pick out the trends used to make the forecast
* Identify implications of the forecast
* Assess the probability of the future described
* Communicate this infomation to other people

At the end of the day, we want our clients to be ready to evaluate forecasts, understand who is writing them, ascertain their assumptions and know what it all means so they can better plan for the future.

This course will be delivered electronically, and will allow for group interaction.

Click here to reserve your seat now.

This social media is nothing but trouble

Friday, 19 February 2010 14:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Well, social media isn’t the problem – but social media DOES disrupt what passes for authoritative information, and that concerns us as intelligence professionals and as leaders.

These slides are from my Pecha Kucha style presentation for the Intelligence Collaborative, a group that considers such issues.

View more presentations from Eric Garland.

The TRILLION dollar gap in pension funds

Thursday, 18 February 2010 07:54 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Old People vs the Riot SquadEnvision, if you will, rioting octogenarians, phalanxes of retired teachers, government office managers and firefighters protesting the sudden cessation of payments from their pension funds.

Imagine some way that American states are going to overcome the apparently one trillion dollar gap in state pension funds while simultaneously dealing with an economy so clearly in transition.

Pause with me, as I add a little extra whisky to the morning coffee. That’s trillion with a T.

The Pew Center for the States sure had a headline for us all today with that report, especially speaking as we are about fiscal “challenges” that are popping up, threatening to return Greece to an olive-based economy, put Spain back in the Conquistador business, and convince us to give California back to Mexico if they agree to keep making the lease payments.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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