Evaluating forecasts in the 2010 – 2020 economy
Round numbered years are boom times for forecasters. There is something intellectually symmetrical about round numbers that makes people hungry for the future. Back in 2000, it was really easy to get people excited about forecasts for 2005, 2010, 2020, 2050 – all divisible by ten, mathematically elegant! There is something more confusing about analyzing trends from 2007 – 2016 than there is from looking at 2000 – 2020. The brain is a funny thing.
As we begin a new decade, you will see quite a bit of retrospective about the last ten years, and copious forecasts around the year 2020. Now is a good time for executives to brush up on their skills in evaluating forecasts, so they can critically assess what is really coming down the road. Given the high level of complexity facing our economies, this is really quite important.
Assessing forecasts is more important than the act of collecting the data itself. When you see numbers about the future in particular, we are instantly attracted to their comforting certainty. Rarely do we ask, “which assumption are packed into this trend line?” For example, take a look at this projection of potential unemployment in the United States from Q4 2009 through Q4 2020. I got this forecast from the indispensable Mike Shedlock, and he got these projections from a mix of Bureau of Labor Statistics reports and assumptions.
There is also a spreadsheet on offer “detailing” the assumptions, getting into the specifics of how many jobs might be created and when they might enter the economy.
Here’s how my analyst’s brain immediately sees this in terms of the future: I want to know what will really be HAPPENING in order to create this abstract curve. Curves like this are pure PowerPoint candy, giving us beautiful visual aids to support our discussions of the future, but the lack of explicit discussion of the future leaves us an intellectual vacuum. To really evaluate the validity of such a scenario about unemployment in the United States, we can’t leave this trend line alone – we must complicate it with all the factors that will actually go into economics in the next ten years
- Aren’t the Baby Boomers retiring during this time, or at least leaving active work?
- The Boomer “retirement” will leave a talent crisis in its wake. Will unemployment mean the same thing?
- Is there a tipping point of high employment at which American society will change and become less stable? 12%? 15%? 20%?
- What about peak oil? What if economic activity is squeezed from high energy costs?
- Which industries are assumed to create the jobs? Why will they provide more value in the next ten years?
- Does this curve assume any backlash from the Ponzi scheme meltdown of the banks? What if we crash again in 2010 or 2011?
- Will US unemployment rates roughly follow the world economy, or is this trend indicative of a shift in economic power to Asia Pacific, Europe, or Latin America?
These questions are not meant to knock down the validity of such forecasts – I’d rather have an unexamined forecast that gets us talking rather than fixate on more blather from the day’s stock market trades. More forecasts lead to more discussions and better decisions.
Hopefully 2010 will be a banner year for forecasting and strategy. If you want to more, we can recommend the book Future Inc, which dives deeper into this methodology. If you want to know even more, get in touch with us to schedule training to make your analysis more valuable to your organization.
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Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Get Eric's blog delivered!
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