Arik Johnson at the Intelligence Collaborative – Putting Intelligence First
by Eric Garland
A great interview with Arik Johnson of Aurora WDC on the future of intelligence and next-generation organizations.
Arik presents some really key ideas about how decisions need to come from the outside in, putting intelligence first and listening carefully to the external environment that is so important in understanding our future.
Social Media and Intelligence: the role of authority
by Eric Garland
Some of my comments from last week’s IntelCollab meeting in Washington DC.
The housing market defies rational analysis
Bloomberg won’t allow embeds, but check out this clip with Robert Shiller of Case-Shiller Index fame as he discusses the housing market.
This guy likely understands housing better than anyone else in America, and he seems absolutely perplexed as to the banks, the stimulus, the whole thing. It defies rational analysis, in response to no structural trend in particular.
Bloomberg, as in most of the business media, has a classic position: Up is GOOD! But Bob Shiller seems more interested in talking about how quantitative forecasting no longer works as a predictive model. He just seems confused as to what just happened. As well he should be.
What is left undiscussed: the notion that a group of our institutions have banded together to defy most of the logic that underpinned capitalism: that there is a free market, and that the winners are not picked by the government. That’s why the trends don’t matter in this case. The Treasury, Federal Reserve, White House and Congress banded together to make banks the winners, to allow them to suspend marking their assets to market, and to artificially keep housing prices inflated. In an economy made by fiat, structural trends lose their predictive ability. Who cares what “the numbers” say if a small group of people can renegotiate what those numbers mean at any given time?
Ah, but this is not without cost. Unemployment, inflation, and consumer spending will still likely follow the laws of gravity. That will make the recent acts of our government a temporary solution at best. So keep your seat belt buckled.
How would Ricky Bobby do strategic intelligence?
by Eric Garland
Mark Johnson gave me the idea for this allegory for “decisions without strategic intelligence.”
It seems strangely a propos.
August Jackson: Be the change you want to see in the intelligence profession
by Eric Garland
A sneak preview of August Jackson’s presentation at the inaugural Intelligence Collaboration meeting coming up this Thursday.
An introduction to the Intelligence Collaborative
by Eric Garland
I’m very excited for our upcoming inaugural meeting, this Thursday of our new, increasingly global, professional society, The Intelligence Collaborative.
The following video explains what intelligence is, why we need to collaborate, and why now is the perfect moment.
Have a look at the video, and if you’re anywhere in the MidAtlantic region, consider a trip to our nation’s capital this Thursday. Tickets are free – just bring your interest in how social media will change the practice of intelligence.
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Connect with us
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