Forecasting works: Functional foods 1999 – 2009

Today, the airwaves are filled with advertisements for consumer foods that aren’t simply nourishing but portrayed as practically medicine. A slew of softdrinks are marketed as hangover cures, energy, memory enhancers, cognitive enhancers, help with clairvoyance, and fuel for flight. Fish isn’t just fish, it’s OMEGA-3 FATTY ACIDS. And somewhere along the way, trans-fats replaced “Ebola virus” as the world’s deadliest substance. Is this random or could you see it coming?

Food as medicine was a theme we predicted for 2010 way back in 1999 when studying the future of food and health for a group of global consumer product manufacturers. The world seemed to be at a turning point at that moment, with a number of trends appearing to collide in the decade to come:

• Super-size and family value packs had reached their apex, due to increasing penetration of fast food and big-box retail throughout the world
• Obesity epidemic reaching a pitch, not only in America but also in unexpected places like France, Greece, China
• Litigious American culture had finally apexed with its war on cigarette liability, and a new target was likely to be next
• Biotechnology was promising new technological abilities for all plant life (this was the era of the Human Genome Project and techno-positive rhetoric was off the chart)
• Boomers were aging, and increasingly interested in immortality on the cheap
• Sustainability was increasing as a concern, and farming would be one of the most effected industries
• The “Slow Food Movement” was beginning to point back to heirloom breeds of livestock and produce and encourage local diversity in favor of industrial solutions

Basically, it was clear that the strategic trend of increasing portion sizes was about at an end. Food packaging technology had a bit more life in it, especially smart packaging to assure safety and freshness for delivery to developing nations. Genetically-modified organisms were causing a firestorm, and the promise of efficiency in factory farms simply wasn’t attractive enough to overcome the concerns over safety, particularly in Europe and Asia. Something else had to come next other than size and convenience.

Food itself hasn’t changed in the last ten years; a salad is still a salad. Food still grows in the ground. The major cause of starvation remains war, not lack of productivity.

What has changed most has been the industry of food. Most players in the food industry have changed significantly since 1999, and their actions have been in response to trends clearly visible at that time. Most all manufacturers are concerned with portion size, putting out “100 calorie snack paks” and “smart size” formats. McDonald’s stopped “supersizing” and began offering more salads and healthier food for kids. (Other players, like Hardee’s turned headlong into the storm and began to offer even more life-threatening beef-tastic products.) Kellogg’s cereal has reduced-sugar versions. Coca-Cola has diversified into all forms of beverages, and their new offerings are calorie-reduced, often featuring nutrients that are marketed as cures. Whole Foods has gone from a niche player to a major alternative grocery store in almost every urban area in the United States. Lawsuits are being filed for obesity.

In short, the future of food was plainly visible ten years ago if you look at the trends. Are their inaccuracies? Of course. Given the hyperactive coverage of the Human Genome Project and the height of the Dot Com Bubble, many people dreamed that genetic engineering of plants would be letting us grow most materials and chemicals and pharmaceuticals in the field as opposed to the factory. Instead, it looks like farmers’ markets are back.

Do we have food-as-medicine? Yes, but most of it is fake. Your doctor still recommends lots of veggies, a little less cheese and time in the gym as opposed to some beverage full of vitamin B12 and açai. However, the overall understanding of food as a major component of health has gotten more press, despite still-climbing rates of heart disease and diabetes.

Some of this stuff took ten years to fully blossom. I remember when my colleague John Mahaffie started talking about trans-fatty acids in 2000 as the next ticking time bomb, and I had no idea what “fat tech” could have to do with the future food. And yet New York City banned cigarettes and trans-fats around the same time.

Does forecasting give you an understanding of the strategic direction of the future of food? It did to our clients who were first on the market with new products.