And they mock FUTURISTS for bad forecasts…

August 25, 2009 · Filed Under Economics 

This morning I awoke to the news that Obama will be nominating Ben Bernanke for another turn at the helm of the Federal Reserve.

My only commentary would be that if you are a self-described futurist and misread the most basic economic trends for your clients, you won’t be called up for more fame and success. At some point, your bad forecasts need to call into question your methodology, and indeed, your competence.

I would say that the reason we don’t replace Bernanke despite his malpractice is that our current crop of leaders are defending our current institutions at all cost, and Bernanke plays well at that game.

Leaders need to ask themselves, do they want institutions that thrive in future realities, or ones that exist DESPITE those realities? Only our most senior leaders can make such a choice, and right now they are choosing the latter.

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Comments

  • jlswanson
    Oh good lord, where to even begin with this one.

    I think we covered a lot of this in the infrastructure discussion you had posted before, but how much more energy are we going to put into "staying the course"?

    Is the lesson learned here is if you have billions or trillions of other people's money you can keep guessing till you get it right?
  • I think what I've learned is that the "leaders" of our institutions are protecting the institutions and not the nation they purport to serve. I have nothing against banks, agencies, even the Fed itself. It's just stunningly clear that their leaders have confused the financial success of a few private firms with the health of the entire society.

    The lesson is for other leaders who may not have the same number of powerful lobbyists working on their behalf. THEY will really need to pay attention to reality, as the federal treasury is only writing blank checks to a select few. The rest of us still need to forecast the petroleum spot markets, plan for the Boomer retirement, and choose solid business strategies.

    Otherwise, as a futurist, this kind of thing is galling just because I feel BAD if I'm this wrong, just on principle!!
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