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Archive for July, 2009

Zero Hedge: The End of the End of the Recession

Friday, 31 July 2009 07:43 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

It is becoming increasingly clear that most major sources of media feel invested in getting Americans to believe that the economic crisis is “over.” The far more likely reality is that our economy is in a major transition stemming from a variety of social, industrial, commercial and technological trends. In that scenario, it is unlikely that we’ll ever get back to “normal.” Instead we can keep an eye on what’s really happening and decide for ourselves, rather than pursue an illusory status quo.

In that spirit, you may enjoy this presentation by the hardcore investment punks over at Zero Hedge.

Keep thinking!

The End of the End of the Recession

Electricity going wireless

Friday, 24 July 2009 09:08 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

We forecast the progression of these technologies some years ago for some clients. Nice to see wireless power promising us a future without batteries (and likely with some other unintended consequences.)

Healthcare: Is it reform or transformation?

Thursday, 23 July 2009 13:42 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

Abandon major media, talk to each other: a podcast

Wednesday, 22 July 2009 22:20 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

At my gym, they have those televisions up above the cardio machines. We have five TVs, and three channels: CNN, VH1, and ESPN.

ESPN is completely innocuous: sports news. Harmless entertainment. VH1 oscillates between retrospectives of 80s rock and some of the most mindless reality television in existence, basically tolerable.

CtabloidNN however, has crossed the line. I have listened to them poke the corpse of Michael Jackson for two consecutive weeks. His father, his doctor, “It could have been a murder!” despite the strain of 75 different plastic surgeries. I can take no more. I find now that my exercise is no longer limited by my cardiovascular capacity, but by my ability to withstand the Stupid.

And then, today, on the crawl below the screen: “Bernanke says economy now better.”

I laughed out loud. I know that media is not really here to help us think deeply, but this was truly Kafkaesque. CNN is trying to inflame this poor singer’s death into some game of Clue, meanwhile commercial real estate will finish the job the subprime started. And then the pithy little crawl runs by, “Guy in charge says it’s OK!”

It is what it is. As I explain in the podcast below, this isn’t a moral judgment, but a business judgment. Formerly credible media are forced to take refuge in sex, death, celebrity, and calamity. Actually, they are really heavy on the death, since that’s a sure punch to the lizard brain.

YOU NEED INFORMATION. You just may need it from sources other than the media we have been trained to accept as credible. Again, it’s not a moral judgment, but one born of pragmatism. You are running a business, or your household, or a non-profit. You need data, and I’m afraid all you’re going to get from the media businesses is stories of Michael Jackson’s monkey’s motives for killing him.

On the bright side, you’re about to discover your inner pundit. So it’s all going to be OK.

Take care of yourselves; take care of someone else; build a great future.

Abandon major media, talk to each other Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Will house values drop like they did in Japan?

Monday, 13 July 2009 20:02 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

In forecasting, it is often useful to show trend lines in a graphical fashion. This way, you may see a pattern forming, and get the jump on a profitable strategy. I outline this method in greater detail in a book called Future Inc.

That’s why I love this gem, one in a long line of gems from Mish. For those who think our housing assets will hold value, he sees the value curve, and the associated thinking, as following the same pattern as the Japanese housing bubble, from which the country has scant recovered.

What do you think?

japanbubbleusbubble

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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