Deep Thought: Chrysler
An American auto manufacturer just stated that its plan to get out of bankruptcy is to tap into the awesome organization, logistical, and managerial brilliance of the Italians.
Skip biofuels- go straight from oil to solar
One of the world’s top energy analysts, Gregor MacDonald is firmly calling out the boondoggle of biofuels, saying that young plant growth will never have enough energy content to replace oil in a meaningful way. Now, that doesn’t mean he sees no brighter future for alternatives:
After spending nearly ten years myself studying energy, coal, uranium, natural gas, solar, wind, government policy, and of course the master commodity, oil, I have pretty much come up with a working model for how I think the next decade or two will play out. As for biofuels, they will play no significant role in the world’s energy mix. And while all the other fossil fuels show some possibilities for enhanced use–and here I am thinking mainly of natural gas and coal–I remain committed to oil as the miracle, concentrated energy source that can be increasingly leveraged to build out a future energy architecture. That future energy architecture in my view will have at its core solar energy. Which is kind of a nice story, poetically speaking, because oil itself is ancient solar energy.
Many people right now, most notably James Howard Kunstler, see our economy woes as a reaction to the end of cheap oil. Any growth scenarios in macroeconomics must be seen in the light of the future of energy supply. And if you don’t like growth, then start talking about subsistence and sustainability.
Either way, you’re dealing with coal, natural gas, and oil on the way to solar.
Podcast with Jack Soto – Native Mindsets and the Future
by Eric Garland
It is impossible to fix any problem while continuing to use the mindset that created that problem. This is an old saw, used to extoll the virtues of examining your assumptions.
Naturally, if you want the opposite of the Wall Street-speculator-growth-at-all-costs model, you need to talk to people who remember lots of past and have been around to see lots of future – Native Americans. I have the great honor of working with Mr. Jack Soto, director of the Washington Internship for Native Students (WINS) program at American University on issues of tribal leadership and the future. Jack’s program brings native students from around the continent to Washington to connect them with the mechanistic workings of Washington.
In this podcast, we go deep into the difference in perspective between US corporate, suburban culture and the constant rebirth going on in the native communities, what it means for their nations, and what we can learn from each other about the recreation of communities.
And we’re not diving into the typical, “Native Peoples Are More Holistic” claptrap. During the hour, we get into the deep background in complex business transactions that most tribes have, their process of constantly recreating nations and governments to suit evolving reality, casinos and their effect, Jack Abramoff (“Live and Learn“), why natives aren’t really environmentalists, and much more.
Enjoy.
Competitive Futures Podcast with Jack Soto, Washington Internship for Native Students: Play Now | Play in Popup | DownloadThe mismatch between universities and employers
“These companies are looking for employees, and I have a degree,” says the 22-year-old computer major, clutching a plastic organizer stuffed with résumés, business cards and company information. “I don’t know what I’m doing wrong.”
That paragraph might be written by just about anyone, in any country, at any time in the last thirty years. But it’s this specific moment and country that surprises:
Unemployed university graduates used to be rare in China. But now their ranks are ballooning to critical levels just as the country suffers its worst economic slump in two decades. Up to one-third of last year’s 5.6 million university graduates are still looking for work, and this year will see another 6.1 million hit the labor market.
China has raised its enrollment to universities in recent years, looking to provide advanced skills for an economy becoming rapidly more sophisticated. Ironically, it has a looming talent crunch. Even more ironically, university education may not be helping provide talent.
“There is a misalignment between the university system and the needs of the economy,” says Robert Ubell, who heads a New York University program in China to train young Chinese employees of foreign companies. “Chinese graduates often have few practical skills.”
Competitive Futures has done voluminous work around the future of the talent crunch, and a theme that often comes up is the paradox that we might have unemployed people with lots of expensive education, and still be missing key talent. It may not be all that mysterious. Our educational institutions are institutions first, education second. They have more in common with Henry Ford’s assembly lines that of classical education received while at the knee of some philosopher, or even apprenticeship – direct, useful knowledge. Reality moves faster than institutions. We have become very good at producing degrees, but not necessarily better at moving people into the areas of hydraulic engineering, geriatric medicine, forensic accounting – skill sets about to be abandoned as the Boom generation retires, and as the Little Emperors take over from the Mao generation.
Somewhere, we are going to have to meet in the middle. It will bypass irony and go straight to comedy when we have a massive need for critical skills and millions of college kids out of work. Surely, we will be able to accomplish something out of that mess – the raw ingredients are there.
The tension will be between universities and employers. Universities, at least in America, are charging increasingly ludicrous sums for their services, and employers are decrying the lack of basic skills. We may go back to “on the job training” and forego the barbaric practice of saddling our children with hundred of thousands in debt – the 21st version of indentured servitude. Employers may decide they can do a better, cheaper, more humane job.
Is Iceland only the tip of the iceberg in European defaults?
For many macro-economically inclined analysts, the narrative has gone something like this:
“The United States took all the subprime and credit-default swap risk and set off a chain reaction that started taking out English banks and a few bystanders like Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank, and all of Iceland. Most other countries are still standing.”
A disturbing number of states look like Iceland once you dig into the entrails, and most are in Europe where liabilities average 4.2 times GDP, compared with 2pc for the US. “There could be a cluster of defaults over the next three years, possibly sooner.”
This could be the sound of another shoe dropping.
Why you should turn off the television news and think of the market any way you want
by Eric Garland
From the insightful analysts at CNBC:
At 10:14am:”Stocks Slide on Swine-Flu Fears”
At: 11:21am: “Stocks Rebound as Traders Find Flu Trade”
No further comment is required.
“By 2025, up to 83% of the world’s work could be done by the world’s poorest man, in Afghanistan”
The Onion explores forecasts in outsourcing:
More American Workers Outsourcing Own Jobs Overseas
The longer cycles at play in the current crisis
I’m excited when people get away from looking at the current crisis in comparison with 1995, and start viewing the longer trends at play, ones that take decades to unfold.
Check out this graphic by Charles Hughes Smith, in which he sees considerably larger patterns of wages, credit, and energy.
1. Peak oil, or the depletion cycle/end-game of the global economy’s complete dependence on inexpensive, readily available petroleum/fossil fuels.
2. The cycle of credit expansion and contraction (approximately 60-70 years), which is now beginning the transition from unsustainable credit expansion (bubble) to renunciation of debt (credit collapse) and global depression.
3. The generational cycle (4 generations or approximately 80 years) of American history which leads to nation-changing social, political and economic upheaval. (The American Revolution: 1781 +80 years = Civil War, 1861 +80 years = 1941, World War II + 80 years = 2021)
4. The 100+ year cycle of price inflation and stagnation of wages’ purchasing-power which began around 1901 is now reaching the final stage of widespread turmoil, shortages, famine, war, conflict and crisis.
Slides from “Keep It Positive” at SCIP09
by Eric Garland
As promised these are the slides from this afternoon’s talk about telling negative stories with a positive, business development spin.
Follow the proceedings at SCIP09 right here
We’re currently in Chicago at the 2009 annual meeting of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals. It’s nothing compared to the environment of being here live, but feel free to enjoy the Twitter feeds of CI professionals posting with the tag #scip09.
If you’re in Chicago, stop on by!
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Connect with us
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