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Archive for March, 2009

The barter economy flourishes in the face of chaos

Tuesday, 10 March 2009 17:13 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

There are a whole lot of talented people in the United States and elsewhere. Perhaps one of the most frustrating things about this current crisis is that most people were getting up every day, designing bridges, learning cardiology, teaching kids, and generally being productive. All of the sudden, we get an email from the banks that everything is completely ruined and there will be no more civilization. It’s time to head back to the hunter-gatherer days. The average lifespan will turn to age 36, most people will die from mammoth stampedes, etc.

In reality, people are pretty resourceful. Just because global finance capitalism is caught in a seizure, doesn’t mean people will stop being resourceful. This is why we’re interested in the establishment of community-based barter networks. That energy and talent has to go somewhere.

Farnoosh Torabi is finding all kinds of examples of barter online, from orthodontists trading braces for server maintenance to laser treatment specialists looking for dog grooming.

If our centralized financial system screws up the concept of money, people will go without it. There will likely be all sorts of grey-market activity as a result.

Making mergers and acquisitions illegal – antitrust on steroids

Tuesday, 10 March 2009 10:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Longtime reader JM remarks the following:

Think about how much influence this current situation may have on the future definition for anti-trust suits brought on by mergers and acquisitions. What will be the maximum threshold for total market share that will be allowed? We keep hearing how these companies are “too big to fail.”

Will the government put in measures and procedures to keep this growth from occurring? Which industries will be affected? Will this make smaller companies more or less competitive knowing they will not or can not be absorbed by larger players?

Insofar as government will not want to keep pumping trillions into bad business decisions, a likely future is that anti-trust departments will be put on steroids.

Then again, Merck and Schering-Plough think that mergers are the way of the future. Their reasoning? Efficiencies and combined product pipelines.

Hasn’t that always been the rationale behind mergers in pharmaceuticals? And is it working?

Is it working in banks? Healthcare? Automobiles?


For our future – can we allow companies to destabilize economies like this again?

Monday, 09 March 2009 21:56 Written by Eric Garland 1 Comment

AIG claims that it believes that its business practice could destroy the capitalist system around the world.

If that is so, can any government really stabilize the system?

More importantly – won’t governments go out of their way to change the very nature of private enterprise to assure that this can never happen again?

Below is a recent internal memo from AIG about the risk it thinks it poses the world economy. What do you think?

Aig Systemic 090309

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Business & Legal baiklouts aig

Barter economy on the rise?

Saturday, 07 March 2009 11:42 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

I’m not sure, I just notice that many readers of this blog are linking here because they are interested in the keywords “barter economy” and “future.” That’s not the typical attraction – it’s usually “future trends” and “strategy” and the like.

Does this mean that people are looking for new ways to engage economically with each other? I wouldn’t blame people for not wanting to give up the fruits of peaceful, civil society simply because our financial industry started leveraging their firms 40 to 1.

I’ll trade bass playing for really nice wine, by the way.

A beautiful day in Urban America

Friday, 06 March 2009 13:04 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

iac_300This morning I had the pleasure of walking up the west side of Manhattan, skirting the shores of the Hudson where that plane landed not long ago.

New, beautiful shapes are springing up next to the scrap metal dealerships, the hallmarks of a society that continues the project of civilization. I am especially struck by the IAC building, one of the new children of Frank Gehry, the architect of Guggenheim fame.

It makes me think that cities are still the likely driver of economic recovery.

Urbanization is still a megatrend:

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This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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