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Economics dorkfight: Mankiw versus Krugman BLOODMATCH

Wednesday, 04 March 2009 16:34 Last Updated on Wednesday, 04 March 2009 16:37 Written by Eric Garland 2 Comments

OK, that title is just fun to write.

The econo-blogo-sphere has been lit up between two macroeconomic heavyweights arguing about the forecasts for GDP growth. To catch you up:

  • The president’s Council of Economic Advisors projects substantial GDP growth to follow the contraction, based on the logical that the deeper the recession, the more significant the recovery – as much as 15% GDP growth by 2013.
  • Gregory Mankiw expresses doubt with this view – mostly because we don’t understand when the economy will bottom out. Also, something about unit root hypothesis is discussed, but I am not smart enough to figure out what it means.
  • Paul Krugman suggests that the unit root hypothesis may be the root of some kind of evil, and retorts with Okun’s Law, a devastating witty retort involving the relationship between GDP and unemployment and Mankiw’s mother.
  • Mankiw wants to bet Krugman some of his Nobel prize earnings as well as a night with Krugman’s mom that real GDP of 2013 will not be 15.6% higher than 2008 real GDP

I’m siding with Mankiw on this one. Not that I have a single intelligent thing to add regarding the relative predictive capability of Okun’s Law – I’m afraid I am working just with vague numbers and common sense.

As I have pointed out numberous times in this space over the last several weeks, our economic growth has been juiced entirely by debt in the last few years – a situation without precedent in the modern history of macroeconomic theory. Perhaps if this recession/depression was simply part of the natural business cycle, I would trust in the idea that the temporary unemployment would ultimately lead to pent-up demand, lots of cheap assets and talent, and ultimately a mid-term boost in economic productivity.

Here, we won’t allow assets to collapse in price or let the institutions fail, because to do so would supposedly result in chaos too great for the social fotomortalkombat4fabric to withstand. We’re in debt as people, companies, and governments. As such, the GDP we are bleeding off is a correction back to true productivity gains. But first, the pain.

I would be very nervous to suggest to our clients that GDP would be bounding up 15.8% in the next few years just because it’s wretched now.

Mankiw WINS.

Tags:  Le Krugman, macroeconomics, theory, unemployment
This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 4th, 2009 at 4:34 pm and is filed under Economics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
  • http://www.gregor.us Gregor

    It’s hard to distinguish when an American economist is telling you what they sincerely believe, and, when they are lodged deeply into the percieved demand of their political tribe. My view of all of them has crashed. I had no idea how incapable they were of 1. addressing current conditions. 2. acting like something other than pedantic, theory-stuffed grad students.

    Oh, and then there’s the cat fights. The one you highlight here is only the latest.

    I’m happy to give all of them points at varying times. But it’s getting harder to wade through the snark, and the intellectual dishonesty. Mankiw and Krugman both have built long records of being for something until the demands of their tribe suggest maybe they should be against it.

    Your post was great!

    G

  • http://danielvecchi.com Daniel E Vecchi

    What a great debate! Really! Or maybe I’m the lone economist in the room? A debate of such proportions has probably not been seen since Tycho Brahe lost a nose in a duel over a math equation. The information age touch of blogging vs. NYT is interesting as well, though not as interesting as Paul Krugman having to wear a silver nose for the rest of his life.
    To try and weigh in a little on the debate (I am lightweight between these two heavyweights), it seems that this debate is about when and where we are in the ‘recession’ and whether the Obama administration can deduce it to say when the rebound will occur. So, I guess, do you ‘hope’ that they can figure it out or is such analysis beyond Obama’s superman abilities? I am playing it safe . . . and sitting on the fence (and keeping my nose!): while Okun’s law, giving way to an increase in output (Y) after a period of higher unemployment, makes sense, all else being equal. Yet, to say WHEN this will happen may be a bit presumptuous. 15% growth doesn’t seem absurd, especially if investments are made to increase productivity. Yet, with interest rates low, investment falling, liquidity drying up, and (under-the-mattress) savings increasing . . . where will consumption be? Also, productivity in what? There are many questions and I hope this spurs bitter intellectual debate on all sides . . . maybe even thoughts and ideas and possibly even an interest from a pretty ineffectual population, which in turn will cause a new era of thinkers, hard workers, and nerdy protest music. At least this debate has pushed a few smart people to discuss what and where the future is and how to align ourselves to it, which is our job in the end, right?
    Anyone need another credit card?

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