Some of the biggest companies grew in the worst of times
by Eric Garland
Tim Powell, via his Knowledge Value Chain (KVC) blog reminds us that rough economic times can be fertile ground for companies that go on to succeed on the world stage:
some companies we think of today as world-class leaders were founded and/or grew significantly in recessions or depressions? GE (1876), Hewlett-Packard (1939), Hyatt (1958), Burger King (1958), Lexis-Nexis (1973), FedEx (1973), and Microsoft (1975), to name a few.
Keep thinking. And keep it positive.
Science magazine: the present is visceral, the future is abstract – so we prefer the present
by Eric Garland
One of the great missing pieces in futures research is an adequate understanding of the human psychology of foresight. We have been talking to leaders about a rapidly moving future for around 70 years, and yet most people would agree that we haven’t quite arrived at a “foresight culture.”
The Long Now Foundation just pointed out a new article in the venerable journal Science which is finally seeking to understand The Psychology of Transcending the Here and Now.
People directly experience only themselves here and now but often consider, evaluate, and plan situations that are removed in time or space, that pertain to others’ experiences, and that are hypothetical rather than real. People thus transcend the present and mentally traverse temporal distance, spatial distance, social distance, and hypotheticality. We argue that this is made possible by the human capacity for abstract processing of information. We review research showing that there is considerable similarity in the way people mentally traverse different distances, that the process of abstraction underlies traversing different distances, and that this process guides the way people predict, evaluate, and plan near and distant situations.
From my own experience, the future is certainly abstract to people – something they consider – whereas the present is visceral – something they feel in their guts.
If I tell you the 2007 Case-Schiller price index indicates a once-in-a-lifetime bubble for housing, one that will soon pop, you file this under “interesting ideas to consider.”
When I show you a picture of the 4000 sqaure foot house that you are inexplicably allowed to purchase under lax banking regulations and unverified income, you file this under, “very awesome things.” The abstraction of the banking system is no match for the visceral awesomeness of being able to purchase a suburban castle with six bathrooms.
I think most people in a global economy will not take the time to consider the roots of confirmation bias is such depth. But I sincerely hope that every leader of business and government will.
Social Networking More Popular than Porn, and what that means for strategy
by Eric Garland
MUST READ, from intelligence thought leader August Jackson:
Policies in information security, public relations, human relations, marketing, sales… the list goes on all have to take this reality into consideration. Old “sledgehammer” strategies are not going to work going forward. The best and the brightest are going to go where they can maintain and grow their self actualization through social tools both inside the company, with partners/customers and their social lives. Many boundaries are going to collapse as a consequence. It’s not going to be all flowers and happiness because everybody involved is going to have to be a lot smarter.
August is on to something big. The drive for social connection is incredibly powerful, more powerful than all other forces including the sex drive. As he points out, the companies may change in social media, but the social trend is here to stay for the rest of our lives.
This will change all organizations, all strategies.
Brand building in a world without major media
by Eric Garland
There’s too much awesome stuff in this video to only highlight a few points. Wine Library’s Gary Vaynerchuk passionately dishes about entrepreneurialism, passion, and brandbuilding in the new economy.
Most important point – content used to be dictated by major media companies who simply won’t exist in a few years. So make your own connections to real human beings and create your own business model.
Like much these days, chaos is leading to totally new opportunities – but we must be ready to take advantage. The entrepreneurial spirit has never been more important.
Greece: E-books = knowledge
The Greeks, who at one point invented literacy and philosophy and math and engineering, think we should give all college students e-books so they can benefit from all the world’s knowledge at once.
Who are we to argue?
The future is free
by Eric Garland
I have received many emails from colleagues this week about their impending layoff. Many of these people have been with their organizations for ten and twenty years. They are some of the most talented people I know, and have decades left of valuable work to offer the world.
So where are they going?
It may not feel like this at first, but they are being set free. Not free, as in free-range chickens, where all your food and shelter is provided, but free as in “released into the wild.” Available to form new organizations, able to contribute in unheard of ways, electronically, in person, part-time, for custom projects, for ONE-NIGHT-ONLY! The opportunities are endless. The insecurity as well.
You know what else will be free? Office space. Retail space. Homes in the suburbs.
A quick statistic: The United States has more than 20 square feet of retail space per person, according to Shopping Centers Today.
Italy has 1.1 square feet per person, and still manages to drink fantastic wine and provide charming shoes to all of its female citizens. They make Ferraris and biotech and electronics and they somehow only require 5% of the retail space that Americans have built.
The retail space, like the suburban homes they were supposed to serve, will come crashing down in price over the next two years. Space, particularly ugly space, will be virtually free.
2011: You want to own your own basketball court? Fine. Thinking of starting a university? It’ll probably be feasible. Want to open a roller rink/flea market, but never could find the space? No problem.
These times will be scary for certain, but maybe even exhilerating as well. People and space are going to be freed. What will you build out of it?
Economic disaster! And, um…MILLIONS OF iPhones!
If we are on the brink of a Great Depression, the run up to it looks a little unusual:
AT&T said Wednesday that it activated 1.9 million iPhone 3Gs in the fourth quarter with 40 percent of those activations representing new customers.
In the back half of 2008, AT&T activated more than 4.3 million iPhones (statement). AT&T also noted that it iPhone customers deliver higher revenue per user and have lower churn rates.
via » AT&T: 1.9 million iPhones activated | Between the Lines | ZDNet.com.
Use competitive intelligence in tough markets
Great article in the Globe and Mail today about how competitive intelligence is especially useful in down markets.
Important quote: “All it takes is time.”
Indeed. This is a wonderful moment to stop, enjoy stillness, and contemplate what’s really happening, away from the strife of bad news. KEEP THINKING. All it takes is time.
Most awesome winter device ever created
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s snowing a few flakes here in Washington, which means the place is completely dysfunctional. This makes me wistful for Vermont’s actual winter – which is why you MUST check out this snowblower, built by Canadians, with a V8 engine!
When Kai Grundt announced his decision to build the ultimate snowblower from a discarded V8 engine, a friend of his just laughed. So a year later, instead of showing his buddy the finished product, Grundt showed him what it could do. He buried the man’s truck under a seven-foot-tall pyramid of snow. From two houses away.
-25 degree weather is still the mother of all invention.
The First 100 Days of the Future
This weekend I came together with philosopher Chris Largent and “America’s Top Ego Rancher” Sue Snyder for an event called “The First 100 Days of the Future.” This all-day seminar was designed to bring participants quickly up to speed on major trends and to apply them right away to a “Template for Recovery” that they could use immediately to move themselves and their organizations to a more positive future.
The major takeaway for us: people are tired of bad news and excited to begin the process of creation. The best feedback we received was, “I came in here nervous about the future of the world and walked out full of hope, new ideas, and new tools I can apply today.”
And that, folks, is why we do this.
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Connect with us
Read Future Inc.
Learn
a time-tested, profitable method of discovering business opportunities in the future with Eric Garland's groundbreaking Future Inc: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What's Next, available at Amazon and fine independent booksellers.
