Tim Powell, via his Knowledge Value Chain (KVC) blog reminds us that rough economic times can be fertile ground for companies that go on to succeed on the world stage:
some companies we think of today as world-class leaders were founded and/or grew significantly in recessions or depressions? GE (1876), Hewlett-Packard (1939), Hyatt (1958), Burger King (1958), Lexis-Nexis (1973), FedEx (1973), and Microsoft (1975), to name a few.
Keep thinking. And keep it positive.
One of the great missing pieces in futures research is an adequate understanding of the human psychology of foresight. We have been talking to leaders about a rapidly moving future for around 70 years, and yet most people would agree that we haven’t quite arrived at a “foresight culture.”
The Long Now Foundation just pointed out a new article in the venerable journal Science which is finally seeking to understand The Psychology of Transcending the Here and Now.
People directly experience only themselves here and now but often consider, evaluate, and plan situations that are removed in time or space, that pertain to others’ experiences, and that are hypothetical rather than real. People thus transcend the present and mentally traverse temporal distance, spatial distance, social distance, and hypotheticality. We argue that this is made possible by the human capacity for abstract processing of information. We review research showing that there is considerable similarity in the way people mentally traverse different distances, that the process of abstraction underlies traversing different distances, and that this process guides the way people predict, evaluate, and plan near and distant situations.
From my own experience, the future is certainly abstract to people – something they consider – whereas the present is visceral – something they feel in their guts.
If I tell you the 2007 Case-Schiller price index indicates a once-in-a-lifetime bubble for housing, one that will soon pop, you file this under “interesting ideas to consider.”
When I show you a picture of the 4000 sqaure foot house that you are inexplicably allowed to purchase under lax banking regulations and unverified income, you file this under, “very awesome things.” The abstraction of the banking system is no match for the visceral awesomeness of being able to purchase a suburban castle with six bathrooms.
I think most people in a global economy will not take the time to consider the roots of confirmation bias is such depth. But I sincerely hope that every leader of business and government will.
MUST READ, from intelligence thought leader August Jackson:
Policies in information security, public relations, human relations, marketing, sales… the list goes on all have to take this reality into consideration. Old “sledgehammer” strategies are not going to work going forward. The best and the brightest are going to go where they can maintain and grow their self actualization through social tools both inside the company, with partners/customers and their social lives. Many boundaries are going to collapse as a consequence. It’s not going to be all flowers and happiness because everybody involved is going to have to be a lot smarter.
August is on to something big. The drive for social connection is incredibly powerful, more powerful than all other forces including the sex drive. As he points out, the companies may change in social media, but the social trend is here to stay for the rest of our lives.
This will change all organizations, all strategies.
There’s too much awesome stuff in this video to only highlight a few points. Wine Library’s Gary Vaynerchuk passionately dishes about entrepreneurialism, passion, and brandbuilding in the new economy.
Most important point – content used to be dictated by major media companies who simply won’t exist in a few years. So make your own connections to real human beings and create your own business model.
Like much these days, chaos is leading to totally new opportunities – but we must be ready to take advantage. The entrepreneurial spirit has never been more important.
This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.
For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co