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Archive for November, 2008

Monty Python: a new business model, with a smile

Thursday, 20 November 2008 15:47 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

This clip of Monty Python’s official YouTube site seems to me to be the ideal way to communicate when you’re faced with a game-changing industry trend.

Humor: imagine the power.

Burlington, Vermont, the healthiest city in the United States

Thursday, 20 November 2008 14:44 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

My birthplace and former residence, Burlington, Vermont has been named the healthiest city in the United States.

Two thoughts come to mind. First, shoveling snow and enduring weeks of -20 degree weather must be good for you.

Second, it must be incredibly good for you because this city is home to Nectar’s gravy fries, two pound sandwiches, and enough awesome cheddar cheese to kill a moose.

Bailouts make us ask: what is the future of the corporation?

Thursday, 20 November 2008 12:29 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

Next up on the bailout list: car companies, cities, healthcare, schools. I guess nobody’s business model is working very well, and now everybody needs money from the U.S. federal government, which of course is half a trillion in the red this year. Companies losing billions want loans from a government that’s losing billions.

I think that a lot of things are going to need a redesign in the next few years, to put it mildly.

Regardless, yesterday’s stars were the automotive CEOs who flew into to Washington DC to plead for the U.S. government to provide aid to its most important companies.

But wait, are they American companies? Chris Kelly at the Huffington Post provides an excellent bit of polemic, reminding us that Chrysler is actually owned by a $60 billion hedge fund called Cerberus Capital which owns, in addition to Chrysler:

A Japanese bank called Aozora
A Japanese real estate company called Showa Jisho
A Japanese golf course company called Kokusai Kogyo
An Israeli bank called Bank Leumi
A German bank called Handel und Kredit Bankhaus
A reinsurance company called Scottish Re, with headquarters in Bermuda
A British TV rental chain called Boxclever…etc.

This is a great point – we’ve spent decades making global capital so fungible, so fluid that it readily cross borders, ignores nationality, changes hands without making news. So can a corporation possibly be a national entity for which a certain government (and its taxpayers!) might claim responsibility?

If Chrysler isn’t a potent enough example, how about Citibank, which is getting “trouble asset relief” from the U.S. Treasury but is now is owned to an even greater extent by Saudi princes?

This begs HUGE questions. What is a corporation? To whom does it belong? What is the relationship between a corporation and the nation-states of the world?

If you’re in business today, and plan on staying in business through 2009 and beyond, these aren’t just philosophical discussions. This is your future. Give it some thought.

City economies now collapsing: OK, let’s take a breath

Friday, 14 November 2008 14:37 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

You know, we spend our time on the long-term future here, but it seems like everybody needs to pay attention to the next few weeks.

Today, several American mayors went on record saying their finances are in shambles, and now THEY need a bailout too.

Did the bailout plan really take none of these repercussions into account? Can we maybe stop and do a little scenario planning about what the next two months could look like before acting with $700 billion in our pockets?

Note to the Treasury Dept: we’re only one block away.

“Nobody could see it coming,” schadenfreude edition

Friday, 14 November 2008 14:08 Written by Eric Garland 0 Comments

One of the most outrageous things I heard about this current financial crisis was that “Nobody could see it coming.” Early warning was written all over this systemic collapse – and people actively made fun of this view.

Watch this video of economist Peter Schiff and the ridicule he must endure for accurately predicting the systemic weaknesses in the economy.

Think about this kind of dynamic the next time you need to spread news of a systemic disruption in your organization.

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About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

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