The first global crisis?

October 11, 2008 · Filed Under Futurism, Geopolitics, Management ideas, government 

It’s great to hear from Thomas P.M. Barnett, author of the Pentagon’s New Map, and one of the top thinkers on foresight in the world. This recent article posits that the current global credit crisis may be the first time we get to truly see the interconnected nature of globalization in action.

As always, the question will be: What new rules and rule-setting venues emerge? Because eventually they must. The Asian Flu didn’t do it, nor have any of the other more regional shocks since, but eventually you need some entities to emerge to monitor and manage these cross-border financial flows. This gap has been clear for many years, but as long as informal collusion among the largest economies has worked–just well enough–no one’s been willing to surrender the power. Maybe this perturbation, then, is really the one.

I agree. The terrorist attacks and wars have really been managed through nation-states, so the fundamental calculus of governance has not really changed. It’s not like the Chinese, French and Canadian militaries started Facebook pages to share data on al Qaeda – we mostly went back to our old system of armies and allies. (And perhaps this is why the results are so mediocre.)

This crisis is different. We’re all in this together, but there’s no government to look over these international transactions. And maybe we don’t want one. Or can’t have one. But maybe it would be useful. It’s complex. In any event, new institutions will be required, hopefully ones more adapted to current realities than old ideologies.

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