Bank failure, “early warning,” and the leadership of the future
This financial meltdown was foreseeable. Still, it seems that the concept of “early warning” is really called into question. In the intelligence business, we pride ourselves on scanning the horizon, nominally to look out for bad things and potential good things on behalf of leaders.
If early warning and business intelligence is truly taken seriously, how could this have happened?
Surely, somebody among the myriad of financial giants and government agencies has a system of intelligence, futures analysis, early warning, whatever you want to call it. Why was so little action taken? Everybody involved in management must take note of the post-mortem of this situation and the lessons we can learn – lessons we must learn.
Often, we are called upon to deliver bad news to leaders, that a real threat is on the horizon that does not match their current strategy. There is a powerful psychological force that makes people reject bad news, or to accept it very slowly. I wonder if recent events won’t make leaders more psychologically flexible, more prepared to accept early warning.
The 21st Century requires leaders with these skills. When major institutions are lead without these skills, the consequences are evident to us all.
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Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Get Eric's blog delivered!
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