Top Themes of 2006 – Cost of Living
I’m thinking back on the fascinating year that was 2006, and how much of it is leading toward renewed interest in the future. It seems to me that this was the year when people got over the slump of 2001 and 2002, and recognized that even if the future isn’t rosy, we still have to face it. In short, it’s a fantastic time to be a futurist.
So for the next few posts, I will cover the major trends that are getting ready to shape the world.
This first one is really a message from my generation (Gen X) to our elders
. I have just have one thing to say:
It is not sustainable for housing prices, education, and healthcare costs to outpace wages for decades on end. The result is eating your young.
What do I mean by this?
It is not reasonable for young people to take on tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt in college, only to face astronomical rents in the economic centers, the prospect of an additional $50,000 of graduate school debt, double digit increases in healthcare premiums, and then the idea of a FIRST home that costs $400,000.
Yes, yes, there is the tired wheel of "you’re all just starting out," or worse yet, "you and your iPods…you want everything." For young people, the current cost structure of living seems like a completely unwinnable game. In the end, wages have not risen along with the cost of living.
For those of you nearing retirement, you may be thinking, but my house appreciated in value – it’s a strong economy! Just bear in mind that with the Baby Boomer retirement, healthcare costs are expected to double to nearly $4 trillion a year. In other words, the structural cost of society is expected to bear further down on my generation just as we come into the (ostensibly) highest earning years of our life.
There are some games that are not designed to be won. In 2006, I think the most prominent topic of discussion was real estate prices for Gen X. I would have preferred discussing biotechnology, or the future of jazz, or politics, but instead it seems my generation focused on "Can you believe how much they want for a one bedroom apartment on the East Coast???" or "I hear if you move to North Dakota, you can get a beautiful four bedroom place for $800 a month…how are the winters there?"
Remember, the generation that fought World War II and sent men to the moon did so very often with only one parent working per family. Not only that, they raised many more children on average. In the intervening years, we’ve made the two-income family practically mandatory, increased the number of degrees you need for top jobs, maxxed out our credit cards, and moved two hours into the suburbs to make housing dollars go further.
This cannot continue in definitely. There are limits, both in terms of microeconomics and macroeconomics. And Generation X are the ones who perceive a markedly different future.
This topic will develop considerably in 2007.
-Garland
Spring flowers blooming…in the ALPS.
As a futurist, I don’t like doomsday scenarios. In the words of my colleague Joe Tankersley, a futurist and writer for Disney, it’s more effective to motivate people with positive visions. But…
Well, the Alps have got no ice in traditionally-frozen lakes and trees are flowering, and…sigh…a lot of disturbing stuff. From the Washington Post:
"Preliminary data from the Met Office, Britain’s national weather service, and the University of East Anglia indicate that 2006 has been the warmest year in Britain since record-keeping concerning weather conditions began in central England in 1659.
Trees are sprouting leaves in Switzerland. And low-altitude ski resorts across the Alps look more like springtime meadows. "We are currently experiencing the warmest period in the Alpine region in 1,300 years," Reinhard Boehm, a climatologist at Austria’s Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, told the Associated Press in Vienna."
A note to climate skeptics as well. I’d like to say from the futures community — we have absolutely no axe to grind here. I really hope this is all a blip on the radar and was nothing to worry about. I hope that human industry has nothing to do with this, because I think the changes that need to come may be quite difficult to manage.
BUT — there are tremendous opportunities for new products and services that improve energy efficiency, reduce emissions and pollution, and increase profit for companies…and that last part is the cool bit.
-Garland
Wildcard Diabetes Cure – The Fallout
Note to diabetics. The news from the other day does not mean the disease is almost cured!
A couple days ago, a Canadian team reported that they have discovered – in mice – a correlation between central nervous system malfunction and Type 1 diabetes. This is a breakthrough, since ONE DAY, as in not today, they may find a way to translate this discover into a treatment, possibly even a cure for some patients, but WE’RE NOT SURE. And moreover, this is Type 1 genetically-inherited diabetes, not the Adult Onset variety that is plaguing the world.
Of course, this still hit the global airwaves as "Hey guys, we’re almost to a cure for diabetes! It’s KrispyKreme donuts for everyone!"
It took only a couple days, but the unintended consequences are already upon us.
My wife is a physician who specializes in internal medicine at the Veterans’ Administration hospital in Washington DC. As recently as yesterday she had diabetic vets coming in to announce, "I stopped taking my medicine…I heard on CNN you guys have got a cure, so why don’t you give me that instead!"
Science literacy is important.
-
Garland
White Christmas???
Look, be as skeptical as you want about global warming…
But it shouldn’t be 65 degrees in Washington DC when I shop for a Christmas tree.
That is all.
-Garland
Labels: Climate change
WILDCARD! A cure for diabetes???
MAN – quite a bit going on just as December comes to a close!
Diabetes is an epidemic, especially in the United States, but increasingly all over the world. The cost of treatment is to be measured in the billions in the coming years. It complicates other diseases. You can go blind. They sometimes cut your feet off. It’s bad. And there is little hope for a cure.
Or is there? In the “Wildcard Event” department, a Canadian team of researchers is claiming to have shut off Type 1 Diabetes in mice.
The team found that abnormal nerve endings in the insulin-producing cells of the pancreas initiated a chain of events that caused Type 1 diabetes in mice. When they removed the nerve cells, the mice did not develop the disorder.That means diabetes may be a disease of the nervous system, not just an autoimmune disease.
It will probably be a while before this becomes a miracle cure for one of the most complex diseases in all of medicine…but it would be an incredible triumph if they can! Right up there with curing the common cold.
-Garland
Labels: Healthcare
Hey, dude, where did you get this Oxycontin?
I’ve been looking at applications for RFID for nearly ten years now, especially in the context of packaging technology. One of the killer apps we discussed was for the pharmaceutical industry. You see, people like to steal painkillers especially. RFID tags could tell you if your box of Percoset was being diverted from a pharmacy to, for example, a high school party in Florida. (Note the NIH study that shows 10% of high school seniors admit to abusing prescription drugs!)
Well, it’s almost 2007, and now IBM has announced it has developed technology to verify the authenticity of drugs using RFID chips. Right on schedule.
-Garland
Labels: Information technology, retailing
Is futuring dangerous?
I received a very typical question a couple days ago from a radio interviewer in Michigan. He asked me, “OK so you’ve written a book about the study of the future. It’s pretty risky to get out our crystal ball, isn’t it?”
Risky?
Yes, yes it is. You risk being wrong. You could imagine scenarios that don’t play out. You could be proven wrong by history.
But isn’t it riskier to never look at the future? I never ran into any leader who lamented the past and said, “You know, we spent way too much time thinking about the strategic implications of our long-term future.”
You do hear the phrase, “If only we saw it coming sooner.”
I’ll take the risk of studying the future over the alternative.
-Garland
Labels: Futurists
The Internet of Big Brother’s Coffee Shop
As we edge closer to advanced Internet technologies, many people wonder if we’re leaving the era of the “Wild West” Net, where nobody really monitors you, to a world where Google keeps your web searches for all eternity. Where the Chinese can track anybody who ever searched for “democracy” on Yahoo. I’m a little nervous about automatic control of information, and I’m getting moreso.
Today, I’m doing research on the role of liberal, non-fundamentalist Islamic movements in the Middle East. And I just got this message from my coffee shop’s Internet provider:
The SonicWALL Content Filter Has Blocked this site.
If you feel this site has been blocked in error,
Please submit a URL Rating Review at:
http://cfssupport.sonicwall.com
URL: http://xxxx.xxx.htm
Reason for restriction: Forbidden Category “Cult/Occult”
Um, I’m reading about a movement that strictly opposes the mixing of Islam and government. A leading liberal, non-violent, non-fundamentalist group. And why can’t I read what they say? I paid $2.00 for the coffee, can’t I be trusted with the website? How bad could it be?
Who made the decision to block this site? Do we get to review that decision?
Big questions ahead for democracy.
-Garland
Labels: Information technology, politics
DNA computing gets closer to reality
With the release of Future, Inc (only $24.95 in hardcover at your local Borders or Amazon) I have been on a kick of talking about the mundane bits of the future: Old people, coal, clean water. Aging populations, energy demand and threatened ecosystems are big. I think that the 21st century will be driven more by fulfilling mundane needs than by supercomputers or whatnot.
BUT
There comes the moments when you see newsreports that really cool technologies are on the horizon, and your future-geeky side comes out!
Take for example, take this Scientific American article that claims that researchers have combined simple strands of DNA into the most elaborate logic circuits yet. That’s right, DNA computers will be their own hardware and software at the same time.
So for those worried about the limits of silicon holding back the computer processing power of the future — remember that DNA is clever enough to run the computer that assembles a human being in real time.
I try to be a techno-neutral futurist, but this kind of thing is pretty cool.
-Garland
Labels: Biotechnology, Information technology
In Memoriam: Roger Herman, a great futurist
The world lost one of its great futurists recently. Roger Herman was a world-reknowned futurist, consultant, and author on the topic of the future of the workforce. The guy churned out books about the future of work and traveled the world helping people retain employees and strengthen the bonds between people in the workplace.
I never met the man personally, but I enjoyed his writings and subscribed to his trend updates which came with reassuring frequency. His thinking about the future of work was rigorous, representing the best of futurist methodologies. He took a very simple, humanistic approach — how do you keep good people? His answers took into account future trends, but came back to relationships, support, personal growth and prosperity for all. He spend his life talking about what the world needs more of.
If you have a moment, go by his site and read a little of his work. He will be missed by the futurist community.
-Garland
Labels: Futurists
About Eric Garland
Eric is one of the world's pre-eminent thoughtleaders in forecasting and strategy. He helps leaders of business and government make critical decisions about their futures.Connect with us
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