• Home
  • About
    • About Competitive Futures
    • About Eric Garland
    • News
  • Case studies
    • Competitive strategy
    • Economic development
    • Opportunity assessment
  • Services
    • Research
      • Technology foresight
      • Future customer profiles
      • Competitor positioning
      • Investment due diligence
    • Training
      • Future Intelligence course
      • Real Forecasting
  • Media
    • Best practice reports
    • Books by Eric Garland
    • Articles by Eric Garland
    • Podcast episodes
    • STEEP Reports
    • Presentations
  • Blog
  • Contact

House poor. Cash poor. Working poor. Poor poor.

Sunday, 27 August 2006 12:17 Last Updated on Sunday, 27 August 2006 12:17 Written by Eric Garland 3 Comments


Let’s talk about the future of housing and real estate.

I live in the Washington DC area. They are trying to sell one bedroom condominiums for $600,000. When I grew up in Vermont, you could buy my entire street for that sum, and you’d get a collective 20 bedrooms, not just one. Granted you’d be near cows and not the famous Kramerbooks in Dupont Circle, but still – we’re talking over a half million bucks, and you can’t fit a good sized couch in the place!

The Washington Post is finally raising some alarms, such as the fact that housing prices outpaced wages in Fairfax County, Virginia twelvefold since the year 2000. The median household would need to spend 56% of its income to afford the median home price.

What’s really ironic is that the Fairfax County executives who did the study live over an hour away in Winchester, Virginia or Frederick, Maryland. To repeat that, somebody who works for Fairfax County couldn’t possibly afford to live there on a government salary.

What is that about?

Says Cathy Hudgins, chairwoman of the housing committee for the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, “I don’t think we’re creating strong communities by forcing people into their cars four hours a day. This creates all kinds of lousy outcomes — children who don’t get to see their parents, workers who can’t make ends meet when gas prices soar, exurban sprawl, roads clogged with long-distance commuters emitting greenhouse gases.”


Yeah, there’s been a few trends that have intersected all at the wrong time:

  • Exurban sprawl
  • Giant SUVs
  • 60% jump in gas prices
  • Dot-com-esque housing prices

So we are basically creating communities that are clogged up, expensive, unpleasant, and almost certainly make us fat, stressed, and diabetic.

We’re smart people – did we design it this way on purpose?

Is there a future in smarter urban design?

-Garland

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 27th, 2006 at 12:17 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
  • Jake

    Eric,Shhh. Don’t tell any more people about our little sanctuary up here close to the Canadian border. It’s already beginning to suffer from the real estate inflation you talk about, although not to the extent that the D.C. area does. Great post today. The costs are far reaching. As parents, my wife and I have struggled with balancing home life, work, etc. because we know the ill effects of too much time in the car and daycare will have on the kids as well as us.

  • Jay Seville

    Read the article. Raises tough questions for which there are no easy answers. In the end it seems like “the market” is always king–-supply and demand. Try and manipulate it and often one gets unintended consequences. Example would be rent price controls that led to 1000s of unimproved apartments in New York City because it was no longer worth the investors’ $$$ to upkeep the units for the limited rental prices. In the end buildings ended up dilapidated for decades before being razed years later when the populace couldn’t take it anymore. Also investors/developers stopped building new apartments and maintaining them since they could no longer cover their costs….If one cannot afford to purchase a home–they should try and rent for much less and use the money saved on a mortgage to invest in 401Ks and stocks/bonds for the long term w/ advice from a financial planner with integrity.When you have some 120,000 jobs created in Northern Virginia in a few years…it’s hard to manage that kind of an economic trend without being behind the curve as county supervisors. If one built some roads in relation to increased population the past 30 years much of the pain of the upswing in population would be diminished. Example, population goes up 65% over a couple decades and the amount of roads increases 15%. I forget the exact numbers now since it’s been a few years since I attended the conference, but the county and state have woefully short of making concrete investments in transportation the past couple of decades and now they want to try and limit supply and demand after the fact as if its some inherently evil trend. The whole thing is a mess…that we can agree upon. But don’t give me victim mentality bullcrap fairfax county reprsentatives.jay

  • SJA

    Eric,Good post…. The social costs you highlighted are the key. The goes back to the question of why are we, as a society, working longer hours and sitting in traffic for more hours each day? The numbers just aren’t adding up.I think that’s why more people are moving into the city, even if it means a smaller house. Who cares if you have a big house if you never see your family and your friends?

About the blog

This is the official trend blog of Competitive Futures, a management consultancy that provides trend research and analysis for business and government around the world. Here, we update you on interesting trends we see as part of our work for our clients.


For managing partner Eric Garland's new author and speaker blog, please consult and bookmark http://www.ericgarland.co

Get trend updates sent to your mailbox

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Sign up for the CompFutures Trend Report

Trends we’re tracking

Tags

agriculture analysis bailout bailouts banking banks business development business models California China competitive intelligence debt disruption Economic Development Economics economy education Energy Entrepreneurialism Facebook finance financial crisis forecasting forecasts foresight future Futurism Greece healthcare intelligence leadership Media mergers mindsets music oil petroleum psychology publishing Retail scenarios social media social networks strategy urbanization
Podcast powered by podPress v8.8.10.12